Friday, September 26, 2008

SEC Forecast - Week 5/Tailgate Plan for Tennessee

Last Saturday proved to be Separation Saturday as LSU and Florida put an essential two-game lead in the standings over one of its main competitors on the road to Atlanta. LSU's 26-21 victory derailed Auburn's championship hopes (for now) while Florida proved that Urban Meyer owns Philip Fulmer with its fourth-straight win over Tennessee. Vanderbilt continued to be the thorn in my side with another win, this one at the expense of Ole Miss - which has now lost nine consecutive Southeastern Conference contests.

This week, two other top-10 teams will grab the spotlight in Athens, Ga., when the Tide and Bulldogs seek to remain undefeated and take advantage of Southern Cal's loss to Oregon State. Alabama will close September the same way it opened the month with a top-10 foe in the Peach State, and they made quite the statement with a 49-14 win in Fayetteville a week ago. The running game has been enhanced with stellar offensive line play, and the defense has played above expectations in wins over Clemson and the Hogs. Meanwhile, Georgia has been quietly taking care of their own business as they hope to regain a top-two ranking (and perhaps the monicker as the nation's best team). The Dawgs will be looking to recreate the magic from their 45-20 victory over Auburn last season with their gimmicky "blackout" scheme, but I doubt Bama is very threatened by this. As much as it pains me to write this, Bama will roll in Athens simply because this has Mark Richt's egg written all over it. Tide fans better be quick with their cameras, though, because when the final second ticks off the clock the scoreboard will follow the "blackout" theme. Alabama 31, Georgia 10.

Ole Miss (2-2, 0-1 SEC) at Florida (3-0, 1-0 SEC): In the league's early game, Florida should dominate as the Rebels will be reeling from a heartbreaker of sorts in their loss to Vandy. The Gators are better across the board, and the final score will reflect just how much distance there is between these two programs. Florida 45, Ole Miss 24.

Tennessee (1-2, 0-1 SEC) at Auburn (3-1, 1-1 SEC): This is a game that has scared me since the schedule was released, and I don't feel any better knowing that the media has spent the last week telling Fulmer how bad of a coach he is. Auburn is the better team and can blow Tennessee out if the running game gets back on track. The Vols' defense isn't as good as LSU's, but the secondary play has been stellar through three games. UT will most likely pop the Tigers in the mouth. We'll learn a lot about this team by how they respond from that. Auburn 17, Tennessee 9.

Arkansas (2-1, 0-1 SEC) at Texas (3-0): An old rivalry renewed yet again, and it won't be pretty for the visitors from Fayetteville. Casey Dick returned to his former self last week in the debacle against Alabama, and I'm sure he's just foaming at the mouth to go back out on national television against Texas. The game means much more to the fanbases than the players out on the field. Texas 31, Arkansas 10.

Western Kentucky (2-2) at Kentucky (3-0): In its final tune-up before conference play, Kentucky should head into Tuscaloosa next week with a 4-0 record. The Wildcats have been promising on defense and dependable on offense thus far. There may be quite a few points scored in this one, and I'm sure that the Hilltoppers are tired of facing SEC foes by now. Kentucky 38, Western Kentucky 17.

UAB (1-3) at South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC): The Gamecocks got a serviceable win last week against Wofford, and the Blazers should help USC inch closer to bowl eligibility. I'm not sure Steve Spurrier has decided on a quarterback yet, but I am sure he has decided on this being his last season in Columbia. South Carolina 35, UAB 3.

Mississippi State (1-3, 0-1 SEC) at LSU (3-0, 1-0 SEC): LSU told me a lot about their team last week with the victory on the Plains. This could be their best chance to go undefeated this decade with the running game and receivers they have. Mississippi State is really, really bad. LSU is really, really good. However, I expect it to be pretty sloppy just like last year's game in Starkville. Jarrett Lee doesn't recreate his magic from last week in Auburn, but he won't have to. LSU 24, Miss. State 0.

Note: Sorry for the delay in these. I've been traveling this week and had birthday festivities yesterday. There will be no formal tailgate for the Tennessee game, and we spent the day last week going from place-to-place and enjoying the atmosphere on campus. We should be on campus around 9:30 a.m. tomorrow.

Last week: 5-2
Overall: 28-8

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