SEC Forecast - Week 4

Welcome to Separation Saturday, the first of many at least. That old cliche' of "every week is a playoff" may ring truer this year than ever before in the Southeastern Conference with its depth and surprising play from two of its preseason "bottom-feeders." While a trio of non-conference games dot the ledger for Saturday and one team will rest its legs (Kentucky), the rest of the afternoon and evening will feature several conference openers as well as the national game of the week, the Auburn-LSU contest that should help give an early indication of the SEC West's representative in Atlanta come December.

So while the rest of the nation peers its eyes towards three heavyweight matchups in Florida's trip to Knoxville, Georgia finally playing outside the southeast at Arizona State and the Tiger bout on the Plains, Alabama-Arkansas and Ole Miss-Vanderbilt promise to be just as intriguing and just as important to each respective team's hopes and goals for the 2008 campaign. After missing out on four predictions in week one, I have rallied with one-loss premonitions each of the past two Saturdays (thanks, Vandy).

Saying that points may be at a premium in the Auburn-LSU game isn't really going out on a ledge considering AU just hung a 3-spot at Mississippi State. In fairness, the Tiger offense also scored another two points but they came in the wrong end zone in one of the most bizarre, frustrating games I've ever witnessed (and I used to attend a high school that played 8-man football). The last two contests inside Jordan-Hare Stadium between the two teams which have finished 1-2 in the SEC West in three of the past four seasons (and six of the past eight) ended in 10-9 and 7-3 scores to further expect a combined total score that will most likely fail to reach the 20s. Chris Fowler, Lee Corso, Kirk Herbstreit and Desmond Howard will descend on Auburn later this week with their traveling circus otherwise known as ESPN's College GameDay Built by the Home Depot originating from the shadows of Jordan-Hare Stadium.

LSU has had an exciting start to its season with two hurricanes moving the kickoff time of its opener (Appalachian State), moving the Troy game to Nov. 15 and nearly threatening to force the Bayou Bengals to take on North Texas elsewhere before school officials deemed Baton Rouge and Tiger Stadium fit to host the game last weekend. Through it all, they have posted 40-plus and limited the teams to 16 total points. Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off that aforementioned 3-2 win over Mississippi State to push its record to 3-0. In the first two games, the spread offense showed improvement but that improvement was hardly visible in Starkville to the fans both in attendance and over the high definition airwaves on ESPN2.

Looking at the two teams in the previous paragraph, it'd be hard to recognize Auburn having any shot whatsoever of winning the game. However, the teams will take the field under the lights at Jordan-Hare (for the first time since 2000, I might add) and have the national spotlight on Tommy Tuberville's squad. Not to mention, Tuberville is arguably the best big game coach in the business, and there may not be any games that get any bigger than this one for the host Tigers. Lose the game and any chance to go to Atlanta is dependent upon outside help. The habit of sandbagging early games to unleash the fury upon the bigger opponents is something Tuberville's teams have been notorious for during his Auburn tenure (and one of the reasons the fan base gets so upset by the "eggs" the Tigers have laid sporadically during the 10-year stretch). There will be no lack of energy or focus, two of AU's biggest problems at Scott Field last Saturday.

So what is going to happen? One team will score 10, the other will score 6. If LSU walks out of Jordan-Hare as victors, I assure you that they will have earned it. Both defenses will play to the strengths of the opposing offenses by limiting the ground game and forcing the quarterbacks to beat them. Since LSU did not complete a pass over 12 yards against North Texas and Auburn has yet to find its identity through the air in three games, it could be interesting to see which defense breaks down first. Expect lots of punts and a couple of missed field goals. The trend in the last eight years favors the home team, and I hope it holds true for the ninth-straight time. Auburn 10, LSU 6.

Mississippi State (1-2, 0-1 SEC) at Georgia Tech (2-1, 1-1 ACC): State fans are upset with Woody McCorvey and his trainwreck of an offense that was on display Saturday night against Auburn. I am not sure that enough credit is being given to AU's defense, but the ineptitude on display on national television isn't going to help wow any recruits (especially when Wesley Carroll doesn't look all that much better from last season and he's only a sophomore). The defense has played better than expected without Ellis Johnson calling the shots, but the ability to hit the big play is there as long as teams don't shoot themselves in the foot. Georgia Tech has already played a tough conference road game and came away victorious at Boston College and narrowly missed extending its ACC record to 2-0 after falling at Virginia Tech over the weekend. Like the Bulldogs, GT's hope is to have a swarming defense that keeps the offense in the game and hoping for one back-breaking score to ice the win. State fans at the office are saying that this could be the make-or-break point for the season. That's not going to sound good after the final horn sounds at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Georgia Tech 17, Miss. State 7.

Alabama (3-0) at Arkansas (2-0): Even the Razorbacks have felt the effects of Hurricane Ike as their rivalry renewal with Texas was put on hold until next weekend. So, Alabama will get a rested Hogs squad that is probably playing with the same sense of urgency as Mississippi State at this point. Thanks to the rearranging, Bobby Petrino's initial campaign in Fayetteville now features four-straight top-10 opponents in Alabama, at Texas, Florida and at Auburn in the next four weeks. This could quite possibly be the Razorbacks' best shot at not going 0-4 in that stretch. The Tide may just be overlooking this game as it peers at next week's revenge contest in Athens, and I have a feeling that Petrino has a few tricks up his sleeve for good ole Nick Saban. In their only meeting while Petrino was Auburn's offensive coordinator, Auburn took LSU to the woodshed in 31-7 fashion. The likelihood of the game coming down to the arms of Casey Dick and John Parker Wilson is laughable from the outside, but JPW secured the win in Tuscaloosa last year with a brilliant drive to stomp down Arkansas' comeback. This should be the Tide's fourth win of the year. Alabama 24, Arkansas 21.

Florida (2-0) at Tennessee (1-1): Think Philip Fulmer feels good about the 59-20 final score in last year's game? The Pumpkin got the last laugh as UF dropped a couple of games at the end to Auburn and LSU then laid a brick against Georgia, which allowed the Vols to reach Atlanta as the East Champions once again. Two years ago, I pointed out that Urban Meyer had yet to coach his team back from a 10-point deficit to victory, and I'm pretty sure that this stat still holds true. The Gators are much better offensively than their last trip to Rocky Top, when they escaped with a 21-20 win en route to the national championship. I look for the Vols to get up early (like UCLA) and then Meyer rewrites history by inspiring his orange and blue-clad troops to a triumphant comeback (like UCLA). Florida 30, Tennessee 28.

Wofford (2-0) at South Carolina (1-2, 0-2 SEC): We are four weeks into the season and the Ole Ball Coach is already out of the Eastern Division race. While the rest of the conference faces its first big test of the season, the Gamecocks will try to recapture their identity from the N.C. State shutout after a pair of close yet frustrating losses at the hands of Vanderbilt and Georgia. I think Spurrier is using this game as his "rest the players who we will 'suspend'" contest, or at least that was his plan until the 'Cocks started 1-2. Now, he will use this to get the attention of any loafers and establish someone (anyone) as his No. 1 quarterback. South Carolina 31, Wofford 0.

Vanderbilt (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at Ole Miss (2-1): Its the Rebels' SEC opener and Vandy has already surpassed the number of wins I had projected prior to the season. Houston Nutt thinks that this could be a huge game when its all said and done concerning bowl eligibility, while the Commodores could be ranked for the first time since 1984 with a win. Nutt is no Spurrier when it comes to offensive play calling, but did you ever think you would see the day that Ole Miss would have more offensive talent than any school coached by Darth Visor? Did you ever think you'd see the day where the Commodores would come off two 5-7 seasons in three years as well as produce two first round NFL draft choices in that span? That's the crazy world we're living in. Ole Miss squeaks by at home in a game that is probably worthy of TV and could be one of the day's more entertaining affairs. Ole Miss 24, Vanderbilt 21.

Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at Arizona State (2-1, 1-0 PAC10): In one of the year's most intriguing cross country battles, Georgia leaves the southeast for a game for the first time since the 70s. Arizona State was caught off guard last week against UNLV and paid for what was most likely sandbagging for the ABC game of the week. So far, the Bulldogs have lived up to their preseason hype only to get pushed further and further away from Southern Cal in the polls. Also hurting them is Oklahoma's swagger through its first three games. All that shouldn't matter in this game as Georgia is more talented and better coached throughout the positions than the Sun Devils. However, would you ever count Dennis Erickson out of anything? Who knows, a win here and he's back on the NFL's radar for the Oakland job. Knowshon displays his skills (again) in front of a national audience not captivated by the defensive slugfest in Auburn. Georgia 27, Arizona State 10.

Last week: 7-1
Overall: 23-6