2008 Southeastern Conference Football Forecast

As the calendar turns from July to August, most media pundits have offered their respective takes on the upcoming season. Here on Aug. 7, we already know who college's coaches (or trusted SIDs) feel will take home the national title (Georgia by a mere eight points over Southern Cal and Ohio State). It is in this spirit, only 23 days until Auburn kicks off against Louisiana-Monroe, that I offer my own Southeastern Conference forecast which will include division champions. I'm not brave enough to pick the winner of the national title play-in game, I mean SEC Championship Game.

First, I'll post my projected order-of-finish followed by small capsules on each team I've devised through research and gut feelings.

EAST
1.) Tennessee (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
2.) Florida (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
3.) Georgia (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
4.) South Carolina (7-5, 4-4 SEC)
5.) Kentucky (4-8, 1-7 SEC)
6.) Vanderbilt (2-10, 0-8 SEC)

WEST
1.) Auburn (11-1, 7-1 SEC)
2.) LSU (9-3, 5-3 SEC)
3.) Ole Miss (8-4, 5-3 SEC)
4.) Alabama (7-5, 4-4 SEC)
5.) Mississippi State (5-7, 2-6 SEC)
6.) Arkansas (4-8, 1-7 SEC)

Why I picked Tennessee? Simple, they improve in the quarterback position with Crompton instead of Ainge and they boast one of only two lineups nationally that returns a 1,000-yard receiver and 1,000-yard rusher from 2007. (The other is Clemson.) Eric Berry is for real in the secondary, and their linebacking corps is just nasty with talent. Everyone points to the Florida-Georgia game as "THE" game in the SEC this year, but the Vols' matchups with the Bulldogs and Gators will have more of an effect on who represents this division in Atlanta. I see the three heavyweights battling out to these odds: Tennessee will fall at Georgia but beat Florida in a 41-35 type ball game. Their second conference loss will come to either Auburn, Alabama or South Carolina. As long as it is one of those first two, the Vols will be able to repeat as divisional champs because...

Florida will beat Georgia but lose to Tennessee and LSU. Yes, Timmy Tebow is a superb athlete, quarterback and human being. That offense does put up great numbers...when its not facing a grinding defense. Florida's defense, though, was atrocious last year and will again be this way after losing one of its top starters (and best secondary player) for the year in Dorian Munroe. Aside from the personnel losses, which you can maybe overlook due to the talent stockpiled in Gainesville that everyone loves to rave about, this will be Urban's first time adjusting to staff attrition, and I'm not sold that the coaches he has coming in are better than the ones who left town. Charlie Strong is a good defensive coordinator, and Greg Mattison helped transform him into a great one in 2005 and 2006. Dan McCarney was a big hire, but you can't tell me that this guy is any better than Mattison.

Georgia, the team I used to enjoy watching that has slowly turned into a group I love to hate. They will finally get the Tennessee monkey off their back, but how long has it been since they enjoyed back-to-back wins over Florida? And we're supposed to think that this year changes all that because of a couple of dance moves and black jerseys last year have impressed the coaches enough to hoist them No. 1 overall (even though they weren't picked to win their own conference by the SEC's assembly of talking heads a week ago)? Look, I know they're extremely talented and few other teams can boast a seven-game winning streak heading into this season. A month away from home (@ LSU, vs. Florida in Jacksonville, @ Kentucky and @ Auburn) is a stretch no one else in the country would want to take on (even the mighty Trojans from USC, who have had hard times lately in Corvallis and Eugene, not exactly Tiger Stadium or Jordan-Hare in a four-week stretch). These guys always trip up because they're focused so hard on winning a particular game (see UF in 2004, which led to overlooking UT) that history says they will fall short of expectations. My guess? They lose to Florida and Auburn or LSU. No way they win both those games on the road.

South Carolina gets a key component back in Jasper Brinkley, which was one of the main components of its five-game losing streak at the end of 2007. They get Georgia, LSU and Tennessee at home. They finally don't have to worry with Blake Mitchell any more. Steve Spurrier refuses to give into the whispers that he just can't get it done in Columbia. These are all reasons to think that the Gamecocks are waiting in the weeds and will make some noise. I'm not saying they can't have a say in who wins their division, but this is a bad season to be breaking in a new quarterback when Tennessee, Florida and Georgia are so loaded. People said it all last year, and the Cocks couldn't deliver: 2007 was its best shot at Atlanta.

I really hate not believing in Kentucky. Do you know how much fun it was rooting for Rich Brooks and his band of Wildcats the last two years, knowing it held no negative outcome on Auburn's fortunes at all? Dicky Lyons is easily the best name in the conference, and Andre Woodson was the next-best thing to happen to this conference since Jason Campbell (if he hadn't have had his senior season the year Tebow burst onto the scene). It pains me to say Kentucky will go 4-8, but I just have a hard time feeling they can beat any other team besides Vanderbilt on their schedule. Brooks should have stepped away with Woodson and back-to-back 8-win campaigns. Now, they're going to go back to questioning his leadership and abilities. At least he's shying away a lot of the negative backlash from head coach in waiting Joker Phillips for at least one year.

Is there really much to say about Vanderbilt, especially when the roster only returns seven starters overall? They'll have a chance to get their program some recognition with a pair of Thursday night contests on ESPN. That's really about the only positive you'll be able to say about a team that was so close to reaching a bowl before coming back to a 2-10 showing. It may not even be close in a lot of the games they've been known to put on teams like Georgia, Florida and Tennessee in the last three years.

Why I picked Auburn? Schedule, schedule, schedule and I really like everything I read and hear out of the Loveliest Village right now. Tony Franklin has all the right words to rest my concerns about this new-fangled spread attack. While I still don't like watching every snap from a shotgun formation, the predictability of our offense the past two years is out the window. Will Muschamp will not be easy to replace, but Paul Rhoads has enough talent in place on defense to overcome any dropoff in coaching. Plus, we've always been strong defensively under Tommy Tuberville no matter the coordinator. While I will never be one to chalk up the Alabama game as a win in August, the two games that scare me as "trip" games are Tennessee and Ole Miss. I don't like where either is on our schedule. I'm not saying that these are the only two games we could lose (there are five or six that Auburn "could" lose), I'm just saying I don't feel as confident about these two as I do the rest of the games. Getting through September undefeated will be key with three-straight against Mississippi State, LSU and Tennessee. Talks of championships will litter the town (and our tailgate) if we leave Jordan-Hare 5-0 on Sept. 27.

LSU has the talent, but I don't think they have the coaching. Yea, yea, yea the Hat has 34 wins in three years. I'm surprised by his willingness to get rid of the Perriloux situation before it escalated any further. This is also the reason I think they could lose three games. Games at Auburn and at Florida in a three-week span is treacherous enough, but how do you feel about Les Miles' ability to keep his team's and first-year quarterback's composure with a three-week stretch that includes games at South Carolina followed by home contests against Georgia and Alabama. We all know he can't seem to keep his mouth shut on the Tiger Club circuits about Saban's return, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him drop another "sure-win" against either Ole Miss or South Carolina in addition to two losses in the Auburn-Florida-Georgia-Alabama group. In point, this guy is more Gerry Dinardo/Larry Coker than Pete Carroll.

What can I say? I really think Ole Miss has done some impressive retooling in areas that were lacking considerably the last three years. Granted, this is still the same fanbase that has an expectancy of "dream seasons" ending in Cotton Bowls, but the fact of the matter is this: Jevon Snead > Seth Adams; Houston Nutt > Ed Orgeron; Patrick Trahan and Enrique Davis > anyone else on Ole Miss' two-deep in those positions last year. They get Jerrel Powe this year to help add depth to a pretty impressive group along the front four, and their linebacking corps boasts Trahan and a possible first-rounder. Sure, their secondary is going to whittle under the pressure of an aerial attack that Florida will bring (and Auburn is promising to bring with Chris Todd, Kodi Burns and Franklin). Nutt will win games he's not supposed to, and this could be an X factor in the West race between Auburn and LSU if either team takes them lightly.

I don't really know what all to say about Alabama without sounding biased. (Although I'm sure I sound biased in my Auburn analysis a couple of paragraphs above). Yes, the freshman class will have an impact. Yes, I know Saban usually has a big year his second year at places. Yes, I know, 147,000 national championships and 399,000 SEC titles. The fact of the matter is that Saban has had three impressive seasons as a head coach (1999 at Michigan State, 2001 at LSU and 2003 at LSU). The others all included at least five losses. He's a helluva recruiter, but his staff still lacks a certain coaching prowess. I know that they lost all those games last year by seven points or less, but is that a reasonable excuse for not only losing to Louisiana-Monroe but also cutting DJ Hall's suspension in half to keep from losing that game? Media members keep saying that they're still another year from competing, but I'm thinking it could be longer than that with Auburn and LSU still holding a grip atop the standings in the division and Ole Miss getting better. Their four road games will push the difference out a bit more than the seven-point losses the fan base loves to point out from 2007. Good news though, they'll take care of that Mississippi State thorn and snap that losing streak.

Attention Mississippi State fans: you got outscored overall last season. If it weren't for five turnovers against Auburn and John Parker Wilson not knowing when its a good time to take a sack, you wouldn't have had that thrilling bowl victory over that powerhouse from Central Florida. Just because you're getting a 900-foot HD board in your Seals Club doesn't mean you're going to win 9-or-more games. As I like to tell the guys here in my office, it's going to be a lot easier for Ole Miss to win eight games than it will be for State to win six this year. I'm happy for Croom, but if its another seven years before you enjoy a Liberty or Independence Bowl again, it will be just fine with me. Derek Pegues is legit, and he will anchor a secondary that will play smart. Anthony Dixon is as good as Jerious Norwood and JJ Johnson. However, Wesley Carroll doesn't scare me nor does he scare any other SEC fan base. State can get wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt, but since when are we supposed to get excited about a team that travels to the WAC "powerhouse" of Louisiana Tech? Aren't those the games that State has a knack for losing?

Nothing, and I repeat nothing, will make me smile bigger this year than seeing Bobby Petrino look up at scoreboard after scoreboard with anger and frustration (well, maybe Saban switching places with him). He's got as many square pegs to fit into round holes as Urban Meyer had his first year at Florida. The difference? Urban's actually a good coach while I think Petrino's been a first-class representative of "right place at the right time" syndrome. My bosses from Arkansas haven't said very much about this team in the offseason. There's really not that much to say here, either. They're going to struggle to win four games. Anything more will be quite a shock, and I'll retract my statements about Petrino's coaching abilities.

There you have them, folks. What do they mean? Absolutely nothing. I said Florida would go 8-4 their national championship season for crying out loud. However, this is how I see the SEC as practices get started on Aug. 7, 2008. How many more days til kickoff again?

War Eagle.

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